Hoy me econtre con la noticia de que EFECTIVAMENTE el petroleo se esta acabando y TAMBIEN que eso va a tener varios efectos en el corto plazo en la economia: primero, la obligada alza a los precios de la gasolina, gas, y casi todos los precios en la economia,... segundo, y quizas el mas importante es que se impacta en el bienestar de los hogares. Entendiendo como bienestar a la capacidad de gasto que les permite su nivel de ingreso y que al tener que gastar mas en gasolina, gas y demas necesariamente tendran menores recursos para comprar comida. Como siempre, los mas pobres son los mas afectados.
Efectivamente, el petroleo se acaba y ya hay algunas estaciones de gasolina que se han quedado sin liquido. El problema es que esto sucede en Inglaterra, y no en Mexico. Desde luego que para los ingleses y otros paises industrializados el problema ya llego.
A diferencia de Mexico, las companias petroleras son todas privadas. Todas tiene cadenas de distribucion a lo largo y ancho del pais y en teoria podrian competir sin ningun impedimiento. Esto en teoria economica seria una condicion suficiente para presionar los precios a la baja. En tanto que mas competencia hay, menores precios habria.
Sin embargo esto no sucede, parte porque el petroleo es un recurso finito, y parte porque las estructuras de costos son muy elevadas. El petroleo es un recurso no renovable, pero,.. que recurso es renovable? el aire, el agua. NO, cada vez es mas claro que ningun recurso es completamente renovable, el agua que hace anhos se creia un bien libre resulta ser un bien muy escaso en estos dias. Tal vez, el agua no es facilmente apropiable, de ahi que sea tan dificil privatizarla.
Sera que Felipe Calderon con su iniciativa de reforma esta solo obedeciendo ordenes? sera que esas ordenes son que deje entrar a las companhias privadas, aumentar la produccion y con ello evitar una crisis mayor en los paises desarrollados? o sera que nadie le da ordenes y el entregismo le sale de manera natural?
seria interesante saber, ... no?
Bueno ahi va la nota con la historia de la tragedia que ya enfrentan los paises desarrollados por la falta de petroleo. Creo, sin ser estratega, que un los paises en vias de desarrollo tendrian ahi una inmensa oportunidad para reposicionarse en el contexto politico internacional usando el petroleo. Putin ya lo hizo usando el gas.
Lo unico que nos falta, por lo menos a los mexicanos, son politicos con un poco de sentido comun y si acaso fuera posible un poco de interes por que sus propios paises se desarrollen.
Comment by Wet_ahuizote
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From Times OnlineApril 25, 2008
Petrol stations run dry ahead of Grangemouth refinery strike
Robin Pagnamenta and Angela Jameson
Petrol stations in Scotland have already started to run dry despite Government appeals for motorists not to panic-buy ahead of an imminent strike at Grangemouth, the country's biggest oil refinery stationed near Edinburgh.
Several filling stations in Edinburgh had just two or three pumps open, with queues two or three cars deep, as customers reportedly stockpiled fuel by filling up jerry cans before paying.
At least one, the Canonmills service station, was closed, with the forecourt taped off while a Shell garage on Ferry Road, was only selling LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) with no petrol or diesel. An Esso petrol station on Willowbrae Road and a Shell garage on Glasgow Road were both out of diesel.
Malcolm Wicks, the Energy Minister, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme this morning that petrol supplies across the UK should not be a problem, but he acknowledged that some motorists could be hit by shortages at certain forecourts.
“I cannot guarantee that every garage forecourt will have petrol at that precise moment," he said.
"I hope the vast majority of people are sensible about this. They might have to be patient. People will have to be sensible and rational."
The 48-hour strike at Grangemouth, which is owned by Ineos, the UK chemicals group, is expected to go-ahead on Sunday as 1,200 workers prepare to walk out in a dispute over pensions.
However, the Forties pipeline system, which pumps crude oil from the North Sea, is set to shut down tonight.
A spokesman for BP, which operates the pipeline, said that it expected the pipeline to close before power from Grangemouth was switched off late on Saturday, ahead of the strike.
Up to 50 North Sea oilfields may have to cease production when the main Forties system closes down tonight.
The pipeline supplies 700,000 barrels of oil a day, equivalent to 20 per cent of North Sea oil production, and the shutdown will cost the UK's economy about £50 million a day, including about £25 million a day in revenues to the Exchequer.
Oil prices have fallen this morning despite continuing supply concerns in the face of the planned strike at the 200,000 barrel per day refinery.
London Brent crude for June delivery was down $1.71 at $112.63.
Ed Meir, an MF Global analyst, said that the strike was potentially very serious for the industry. “We believe that there will be tremendous pressure on the two sides to settle," he said.
John Hutton, Business Secretary, told MPs yesterday that fuel stocks and imports should be sufficient to maintain supplies during the strike.
Steam and electricity from the Grangemouth refinery are essential to operations at the nearby Kinneil processing plant, where crude oil from the Forties pipeline is stabilised by removing sulphur and extracting gas.
Unless Ineos can supply basic utilities to Kinneil to keep it running, oil and gas production from the Forties sector of the North Sea is likely to halt within 24 hours.
Tony Woodley, the general secretary of the Unite union, which represents Grangemouth workers, has indicated that the strike could escalate.
Mr Woodley will address a mass meeting of workers at Grangemouth today.
He has said that after the two-day strike there will be a pause, but he said that if the company remained intransigent then an escalation of the dispute was inevitable.
Unite has indicated that it will begin a work-to-rule after the dispute, which could cause long-term problems for the 24 hour a day, seven day a week operation run by Ineos.
“We understand the seriousness of the situation," Mr Woodley said. "It is extremely serious — that is why Unite has been behaving responsibly.
"We have made sure the plant and equipment is in a state to start up extremely quickly and we have made sure there is emergency cover for the emergency services.”
He has accused Ineos of “going through the motions” during the two days of peace talks this week at Acas.
Efectivamente, el petroleo se acaba y ya hay algunas estaciones de gasolina que se han quedado sin liquido. El problema es que esto sucede en Inglaterra, y no en Mexico. Desde luego que para los ingleses y otros paises industrializados el problema ya llego.
A diferencia de Mexico, las companias petroleras son todas privadas. Todas tiene cadenas de distribucion a lo largo y ancho del pais y en teoria podrian competir sin ningun impedimiento. Esto en teoria economica seria una condicion suficiente para presionar los precios a la baja. En tanto que mas competencia hay, menores precios habria.
Sin embargo esto no sucede, parte porque el petroleo es un recurso finito, y parte porque las estructuras de costos son muy elevadas. El petroleo es un recurso no renovable, pero,.. que recurso es renovable? el aire, el agua. NO, cada vez es mas claro que ningun recurso es completamente renovable, el agua que hace anhos se creia un bien libre resulta ser un bien muy escaso en estos dias. Tal vez, el agua no es facilmente apropiable, de ahi que sea tan dificil privatizarla.
Sera que Felipe Calderon con su iniciativa de reforma esta solo obedeciendo ordenes? sera que esas ordenes son que deje entrar a las companhias privadas, aumentar la produccion y con ello evitar una crisis mayor en los paises desarrollados? o sera que nadie le da ordenes y el entregismo le sale de manera natural?
seria interesante saber, ... no?
Bueno ahi va la nota con la historia de la tragedia que ya enfrentan los paises desarrollados por la falta de petroleo. Creo, sin ser estratega, que un los paises en vias de desarrollo tendrian ahi una inmensa oportunidad para reposicionarse en el contexto politico internacional usando el petroleo. Putin ya lo hizo usando el gas.
Lo unico que nos falta, por lo menos a los mexicanos, son politicos con un poco de sentido comun y si acaso fuera posible un poco de interes por que sus propios paises se desarrollen.
Comment by Wet_ahuizote
***********
From Times OnlineApril 25, 2008
Petrol stations run dry ahead of Grangemouth refinery strike
Robin Pagnamenta and Angela Jameson
Petrol stations in Scotland have already started to run dry despite Government appeals for motorists not to panic-buy ahead of an imminent strike at Grangemouth, the country's biggest oil refinery stationed near Edinburgh.
Several filling stations in Edinburgh had just two or three pumps open, with queues two or three cars deep, as customers reportedly stockpiled fuel by filling up jerry cans before paying.
At least one, the Canonmills service station, was closed, with the forecourt taped off while a Shell garage on Ferry Road, was only selling LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) with no petrol or diesel. An Esso petrol station on Willowbrae Road and a Shell garage on Glasgow Road were both out of diesel.
Malcolm Wicks, the Energy Minister, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme this morning that petrol supplies across the UK should not be a problem, but he acknowledged that some motorists could be hit by shortages at certain forecourts.
“I cannot guarantee that every garage forecourt will have petrol at that precise moment," he said.
"I hope the vast majority of people are sensible about this. They might have to be patient. People will have to be sensible and rational."
The 48-hour strike at Grangemouth, which is owned by Ineos, the UK chemicals group, is expected to go-ahead on Sunday as 1,200 workers prepare to walk out in a dispute over pensions.
However, the Forties pipeline system, which pumps crude oil from the North Sea, is set to shut down tonight.
A spokesman for BP, which operates the pipeline, said that it expected the pipeline to close before power from Grangemouth was switched off late on Saturday, ahead of the strike.
Up to 50 North Sea oilfields may have to cease production when the main Forties system closes down tonight.
The pipeline supplies 700,000 barrels of oil a day, equivalent to 20 per cent of North Sea oil production, and the shutdown will cost the UK's economy about £50 million a day, including about £25 million a day in revenues to the Exchequer.
Oil prices have fallen this morning despite continuing supply concerns in the face of the planned strike at the 200,000 barrel per day refinery.
London Brent crude for June delivery was down $1.71 at $112.63.
Ed Meir, an MF Global analyst, said that the strike was potentially very serious for the industry. “We believe that there will be tremendous pressure on the two sides to settle," he said.
John Hutton, Business Secretary, told MPs yesterday that fuel stocks and imports should be sufficient to maintain supplies during the strike.
Steam and electricity from the Grangemouth refinery are essential to operations at the nearby Kinneil processing plant, where crude oil from the Forties pipeline is stabilised by removing sulphur and extracting gas.
Unless Ineos can supply basic utilities to Kinneil to keep it running, oil and gas production from the Forties sector of the North Sea is likely to halt within 24 hours.
Tony Woodley, the general secretary of the Unite union, which represents Grangemouth workers, has indicated that the strike could escalate.
Mr Woodley will address a mass meeting of workers at Grangemouth today.
He has said that after the two-day strike there will be a pause, but he said that if the company remained intransigent then an escalation of the dispute was inevitable.
Unite has indicated that it will begin a work-to-rule after the dispute, which could cause long-term problems for the 24 hour a day, seven day a week operation run by Ineos.
“We understand the seriousness of the situation," Mr Woodley said. "It is extremely serious — that is why Unite has been behaving responsibly.
"We have made sure the plant and equipment is in a state to start up extremely quickly and we have made sure there is emergency cover for the emergency services.”
He has accused Ineos of “going through the motions” during the two days of peace talks this week at Acas.
